Fu, X., Cheng, J., Peng, L. et al. Co-benefits of transport demand reductions from compact urban development in Chinese cities. Nat Sustain 7, 294–304 (2024).

Objective:

• An integrated approach and provide presumably the first attempt to investigate the implications of CUD for carbon emissions, energy use, air quality, and human health

Case:

• China

Methodology:

• Regression
• Dynamic projection model for emissions in China
  • GCAM-China: energy
  • MEIC: emissions
• Avoided premature mortality:
  • $Mort_{i,j,k} = Pop_{j,k} \cdot Base_j \cdot (\frac{1}{RR_j(C_{i,k})}-\frac{1}{RR_j(C_{Base,k})})$
  • Where j is age group, k is grid box, RR is the relative risk of air-pollution-induced premature death, with air pollutant concentrations C, i is the policy scenario
• GEMM:
  • $RR(c)= e^{\frac{\theta+log(c/a+1)}{1+e^{-(c-\mu)/v}}}$
  • Where c is annual average ambient PM2.5 concentration; e is Euler’s number; other coefficients are parameters of the shape of RR curves
• Social cost carbon:
  • $M_c = SCC * E_c$
• Value of statistical life:
  • $M_a = VSL * Mort$
• Energy saving

Data Source: Open

• DPEC emission
• WRF-chem outputs: princeton archive
• Emission database
• ECLIPSE emission
• Global burden of disease database
• SSP
• Technology

Findings:

• In the baseline scenario, transport remains a major emission source and contributes 13%, 25% and 15% of total CO2, NOx and CO in 2050 (38% higher than 2017)
• CUD policy provides co-benefits for climate, energy, air quality and health

• Through reviewing the 5D’s framework, negative impacts on private passenger vehicle use can be observed
• Transport emission reductions mainly occur in eastern urban areas.
• CUD policy leads to emission decreases concentrated in cities of all provinces

• CUD delivers health co-benefits and avoids 5.8 thousand premature deaths via reductions in non-exhaust vehicle emissions and upstream emissions of air pollutants

Coding Reference:

• Code (2014)