Grewe, V., Gangoli Rao, A., Grönstedt, T. et al. Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Analyse the effectiveness of political and technical measures on climate change

Case:

• Global

Methodology:

• Top-down analysis
• Bottom-up scenarios
• AirClim model
• Monte-Carlo

Data Source

• emission
• passenger-kilometres

Findings:

• Advances in airline operating efficiency including changing the type of aircraft, the number of seats and load factor lead to a reduced increase of flown kilometres

• After 2050 the increase in RPK is balanced by technology enhancements leading to almost constant fuel consumption unitl 2100

• ICAO’s offsetting scheme, CORSIA will surpass the climate target set to support the 1.5 goal between 2025 and 2064 with a 90% likelihood

Coding Reference:

• Not applicable