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Kontokosta, C.E., Hong, B. & Bonczak, B.J. Socio-spatial inequality and the effects of density on COVID-19 transmission in US cities. Nat Cities 1, 83–93 (2024)

Objective:

  • How did neighborhoods in different urban and socioeconomic contexts respond to social distancing policies during the early stage of the pandemic
  • What are the effects of land use and density on social distancing behaviors and COVID-19 infection rates
  • How do racial and income disparities influence mitigating behaviors in higher-density neighborhoods

Case:

  • Census tract, US

Methodology:

  • Land use: 1-square-meter resolution, and each pixel represents a specific land use/land cover class
  • k-means: identify 5 types of community

Data Source: Open

  • Exposure density index: Smartphone from VenPath
  • Road network, buildings, land use, POIs: OSM
  • Infections
  • Demographics: American community survey
  • Disease and health indicators: Centers for disease control and prevention

Findings:

  • The overall activity volume in downtown areas decreased after the stay-at-home compared with pre-COVID; while activities in the peripheral areas remained relatively constant or decreased, a result of a shift to more localized activity around residential areas
  • Heterogeneity between cities
  • Residents in higher-density neighborhoods may perceive a higher risk of infection
  • Quadratic function as the best-fit relationship between residential population density and neighborhood infection rates
  • Race and ethnicity are found to be significant factors in mitigating behavior for higher density neighborhoods
  • Educational attainment and job occupation are also important determinants of social distancing and exposure density change

Coding Reference: