Liu, Y., Cai, W., Lin, X. et al. Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Assess ENSO’s impact on global economic production using historical climate and economic production data

Case:

• Global countries

Methodology:

• Fixed-effect panel regression
• Counterfactual analysis

Data Source

• Sea surface temperature: HadISST
• Land surface temperature: ECMWF
• GDP: World bank
• Population density: GPW
• IPCC, SSP

Findings:

• ENSO impact persists for 3 years

• Both extreme EI Nino and La Nina cause damage on economic growth, but the damage is far greater during EI Nino than during La Nina

• The impact from future ENSO cycles increases in a warming climate, with an exacerbated loss of global ecomomic production from increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming

Coding Reference:

• Matlab