Morris, J., Sokolov, A., Reilly, J. et al. Quantifying both socioeconomic and climate uncertainty in coupled human–Earth systems analysis. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Take a probabilistic ensemble approach to representing a comprehensive set of both socio-economic and climate uncertainties in a complex human-earth system model to provide an updated set of probability distributions of both human and earth system outcomes that can help inform a risk-based decision-making process

Case:

• Global countries

Methodology:

• IAM: EPPA and MESM

Data Source

• Energy
• Economy
• Population
• Natural resource

Findings:

• Earth system and socioeconomic uncertainties have a less than additive impact on the range of outcomes in terms of mean absolute deviation and other metrics of dispersion, as uncertainties can offset one another to varying degrees depending on the outcome of interest

Coding Reference:

• GAMS