Woody, M., Keoleian, G.A. & Vaishnav, P. Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Use different grid development scenarios to explore the limits of what vehicle electrification can accomplish for decarbonization and consider if the current US vehicle electrification goal by itself is sufficient to meet US climate goals

Case:

• US state & grid

Methodology:

• Fleet model
• Emission model
• Fuel model: VISION
• Grid projection: NREL’s Cambium

Data Source

• Car
• Emission
• Fuel

Findings:

• Achieving a 50% electric sales rate in 2030 would lead to 11.5% of the LDV stock being electric in 2030

• In 2035, an 89% EV sales rate and 31% of the overall vehicle stock is electric

• Vehicle electrification, responsible for a 3% reduction by 2030, is responsible for a 11% (161 Mt) reduction in emission by 2035

Coding Reference:

• Not available