Xia, Y., Liao, C., Chen, X. et al. Future reductions of China’s transport emissions impacted by changing driving behaviour. Nat Sustain 6, 1228–1236 (2023)

Objective:

• Decompose and understand how driving behavior affects vehicular emissions and how trends in behavior may or may not contribute to the net-zero emission reduction goal

Case:

• Hefei, Nanjing, China

Methodology:

• Laval-leclercq model (Trait modeling)

Data Source: partial open

• Car ownership: provincial yearbook
• Vehicle emission standards: China mobile source environmental management annual report
• Trajectory data: request
• Nanjing trajectory 2018: UTE project
• Trajectory 2021: TJRD TS Project

Findings:

• Despite the fast-decreasing trends in other major pollutants, CO2 emissions are shown to decrease slightly

• Accumulated extra emissions from 2013 to 2050 can reach 400.5 tons CO2, 1.5 million tons CO, 69.1 thousand tons NOx, 22.4 thousand tons HC and 3.3 thousand tons PM
• Yearly peak of major pollutant emissions would appear in 2025 or 2026

• Imposing the carbon price lowers fossil fuel combustion and increases renewable and bioenergy uses across all world regions
• Regional socio-demographic characteristics affect population vulnerability, influencing health outcomes

• The deforestation method is a key assumption driving the OC emissions increases

Coding Reference:

• Python