Xu, F., Huang, Q., Yue, H. et al. The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of deaths attributable PM2.5 air pollution (DAPP) based on the CMIP6 dataset, provincial-level disease mortality data and decomposition analysis

Case:

• China’s provinces

Methodology:

• Comparable risk assessment framework: population attributable fraction
• GBD model
• Decomposition analysis

Data Source

• Global PM2.5 assessment dataset
• CMIP6
• SSP

Findings:

• Population-weighted PM2.5 concentration in China increased by 43.8% from 2000 to 2019

• From 2019-2025, annual DAPP under most scenarios was projected to decline

• Population aging was the only factor contributing to the growth of DAPP

• The older individuals are still the most susceptible group

Coding Reference:

• Python