Zhao, P., Li, Y., Zhang, C. et al. Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions. Nat Commun

Objective:

• Quantify the long-term carbon consequences of Arctic Sea Route (ASR) access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model

Case:

• Global countries

Methodology:

• ARIMAX model for trade volume
• Trip distribution
• Emission model

Data Source

• Trade related
• Shipping route

Findings:

• ASR use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22-2.72%

• Environmental disparity in exposure to emissions will increase since North-east Asia, Northern EU, and North America will experience particularly large increases in emissions due to rerouted shipping flows

Coding Reference:

• Python