M. Zioga, M. Kotz, A. Levermann, Observed carbon decoupling of subnational production insufficient for net-zero goal by 2050, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.

Objective:

• decouple economic output from production-based CO2 emissions on a subnational level for the last three decades

Case:

• Global countries

Methodology:

• OLS
• Decoupling rate
• Prediction

Data Source

• Subnational data: DOSE
• Carbon emission: EDGAR
• Cumulative CO2 emissions: National fossil carbon emissions
• Policy: OECD and World bank

Findings:

• Europe consistently outperforms other regions with a significant number of its regions sustaining a continuous decoupling trajectory

• 29% achieve absolute decoupling, accounting for 44 and 38% of historical CO2 emissions and GRP, while 52% accomplished relative decoupling

• CRegions where cities have implemented or announced any type of local climate mitigation plans typically exhibit higher levels of decoupling
• Nationally mandated local plans are more effective than those autonomously develped by urban authorities

• Deviations in decoupling rates within countries are found to be typically larger than differences between them
• Higher deviations of decoupling within countries are generally observed in contries characterized by weaker governance, measured by World Bank’s government effectiveness index

• Regions with more developed economies, characterized wigh higher income and accumulated CO2 emissions, exhibit a greater level of decoupling between economic growth and emissions

Coding Reference:

• Python